There is always a price at which players can offer value. However, based on their average draft placements, it’s unlikely that a given player would offer enough value to be drafted at their current chosen location. Below are the players that the analyst has far lower compared to his ADP. Check out Andrew Erickson’s 2022 all-bust his squad.
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Andrew Erickson’s all-bust team
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), but his average fantasy points per game is lower than in 2020 (25.2). And it was with The Fold’s Tyreek Hill.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s resignation cannot be ignored. Despite Mahomes not becoming a starter until the 2018 season, the duo ranks his second in total passes and touchdowns (41) since 2016. There are genuine concerns about his highest-level weekly ceiling without Hill not being considered for QB2 ADP.
Among the top three ADP drafted QBs, Mahomes had the highest bust percentage last season.
Of the seven games Tyreek Hill has busted in 2021, Mahomes has finished in the top five just once. Mahomes achieved his fifth top finish as Hill finished with his WR20 or better.
Coming off a season with a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career-high interceptions (16), he’s an overrated QB2 based on name recognition alone.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
DK Metcalf (SEA)
The difference between having Jeno Smith/Drew Locke at quarterback versus Russell Wilson can’t be overemphasized. This is a scary situation and puts DK Metcalf in a difficult situation.
The Alpha wideout had an opportunity last season under a small sample size, but with Wilson out of quarterback for three games, he averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th-15th in his final season long-term streak). (same as rank) was recorded.
But before a finger injury made a much bigger impact than 17, he eliminated the quarterback who led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rate (133.6) and passer rate from clean pockets (130.9). It seems to be – the sample size of the game.
Metcalfe has 32 TDs in the last three seasons…
But scoring may be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 24, 2022
Dionte Johnson (PIT)
The Steelers’ pass play rate could drop dramatically with a new quarterback. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two of his games, the Steelers ranked him 23rd in pass play percentage. No one saw more than 100 targets in that offense.
A more run-focused offense that may still bottom out with a new QB that doesn’t weigh so much on targets as Dionte Johnson battles the likes of Chase Claypool, Pat Freihermuth and George Pickens for targets and.
I’m not so bullish about paying a premium price for round 4.
Remember, the best WR attached to a rookie QB last season was Brandin Cooks as WR20.
Johnson had already put needles in needles last season with his bad play at quarterback, finishing as the only top 10 WR in half-point scoring with an offense that generated negative EPA per dropback. Four more finished in the WR18-WR24 range.
A receiver like Johnson is a fantasy WR2 and won’t be a fantasy WR1 with a bad existing offense unless you look at absolutely ridiculous target volumes.
So why should Johnson’s 2021 target share of 26% have to be paid in the middle of Round 4?
Adam Thielen (MIN)
The 32-year-old wideout has made hay in a fantasy world thanks to his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but that’s not sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s goals and yardage totals, his total TD count should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is a rising rocket ship and only sees his TD rise going into year 3, possibly to the detriment of Shilen. Needless to say, AT’s age is at his lowest since he first became a starter in 2016. He’s received PFF in grades and routes, and he’s recorded yards per run, so we may finally be catching up to him. .
Mark Andrews (BAL)
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end that led the roster to the Fantasy Championship. His TE in his fourth year with the Baltimore Ravens led the position with 25% target share, 28% air yard share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran routes in his 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also put him in first place.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has established himself as a clear TE1.
However, keep in mind that even if Andrews repeats his efforts as TE1, it may not be as good as in 2021. His 623 route run was 209 times more than he did in 2020, adding momentum to his career year. Andrews’ Root His increase in running was associated with an improvement in the Ravens’ pass play rate (56%).
From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed less than 46% of their plays. Baltimore’s passing increase is what he inevitably came into 2021, so we predict he’ll be closer to his 2019-2020 rate this next season.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) & Damien Harris (RB – NE)
The Raiders’ offense reaches new heights in 2022 with the addition of No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams. And that benefits Josh Jacobs, the team’s projected lead on the ball his career, who has missed his last two of the team’s preseason games. A more efficient offense could help with more scoring opportunities — a must behind his 29th-ranked OL in the PFF — Jacobs is the team’s most prolific red zone back. Earn rewards.
Last year’s RB13 set career-highs in all receiving categories in 2021, despite playing alongside Kenya’s Drake and Jalen Richard. There was a deliberate effort to feature Jacobs as a receiver, and in 12 of 15 games he caught at least 2 of his passes. More importantly, the ability to receive that Jacobs demonstrated ended the narrative of his reliance on “game scripts.” Loaded with the Raiders, he has shown that whether he wins or loses the 2022 AFC West, JJ can be used all around.
After Week 1, Jacobs ranked second in RB targets (42, 5.3 per game).
It’s important to remember that Drake and Darren Waller missed five games in this eight-game stretch. Jalen Richard he missed three games. Given that Jacobs only averaged 3.3 targets per game from Weeks 1 to 9 before all his injuries, it would be safe to take over the use of the pass game with more pass catchers starting in 2021. It’s not a bet.
That makes him a very TD-dependent fantasy RB2.
Bolden has bolstered the running back stable behind Jacobs, especially considering that the Raiders chose to sign both Brandon Boden and Amir Abdullah this offseason. As a player, I don’t think he’s playing his rightful role offensively.
Abdullah has been used as a third-down back by some of the teams he has been with at the NFL level, and the team that chose to release Kenyan Drake saw him as a RB catching passes from the backfield as a lock. It suggests that there is
The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but expected less from White in the first year based on New England’s Josh McDaniels’ track record of not featuring Day 3 rookie RB. I have not.
The result is that the new head coach will likely drive Jacobs into the ground with an expiring contract, as he did with Dion Lewis, Legaret Brandt and Shane Vereen during his tenure with the Patriots.
Besides, Red Zone’s role is paramount to Fantasy Point, and it appears to be in Jacobs’ hands.
Two-down back Damien Harris played a role in the red zone for the Patriots last season and thrived because of it. was ranked first.
But the Patriots offense also lacked serious red zone threats like Waller, Adams, and Hunter Renfroe.
Overall, like many of the running backs on this bust list who were drafted in the dreaded RB dead zone (mainly rounds 3-5), Jacobs’ predictions for 2022 have his potential Too many “bad” things outweigh the rise in TD. Vegas as a draft selection for the first five rounds. His current ADP ranks him 45th overall. This is too rich in my blood given the amount of issues with his profile.
Much better to draft a WR at this range.
However, if everyone in the draft decides to fade one of these dead zones back to points that can be earned in the late 6th or 7th round of the draft, I’m open to scooping value.
After all, Jacobs’ weekly cap isn’t high (no Top 6 finishes (boom games)), but last year he was one of only four RBs to finish inside the Top 16 and record a 0% bust percentage. .
All things considered, he’s just a cheap version of Ezekiel Elliott.
2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings
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